SPORTSTRADAMUS: ANALYSIS WITHOUT EXPLANATION
At the end of the day, every fantasy sports analyst is like a meteorologist. They certainly have a lot of data to support their theory, and often they are correct about what the weather will be. But when they’re wrong, and the hurricane is worse than expected, no one blames the meteorologist. And fantasy analysts are wrong a lot. It’s an incredibly cushy job if you think about it. They’re like modern day Nostradamuses… Nostradami? People still flock to hear their predictions. Because when they’re right, there was all that supporting gobbledygook just sitting there, ready to substantiate the writer’s visionary prowess.
It got me thinking a very obvious thought: fantasy sports analysis is arbitrary and like, just someone’s opinion, man. There are already so many well respected websites (for good reason!) that explain their predictions. What if I could just cut to the chase, after aggregating all that work those other guys did, because after all we can make statistics say just about whatever we want (to a limit). What if I analyzed everything for you and just… told you the conclusion of, like, my opinions, man? Better yet, what if I didn’t tell you a lot of conclusions, I just categorized the pricing on the Draft Kings marketplace?
Because again, you’re probably reading this hoping I confirm a bias you already have.
In conclusion, you know I’m going to be wrong half the time anyway — just like your favorite data scientist on Twitter. With way too much time on my hands — hashtag pandemic — I’ve dove into the deep end of daily fantasy sports. And that’s when SPORTSTRADAMUS was born.
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With my articles, I’m not trying to tell you who to start or sit. Instead, I want to categorize the available players who I think present value in Daily Fantasy Sports. I’m not necessarily saying these players will be world beaters (though I do like them that week), I’m simply saying there is value to be had based on how they are priced.
There are six categories I use, and I will share my methodology under each category. If a player is not included, it’s safe to say I don’t like them for that week, based on pricing. Certainly an expensive player will go off, but maybe not to a degree that justifies their exorbitant salary.
Again I’m not here to tell you who to start. There are dozens of websites, many of which I look at, with much higher data capabilities. Check them out, especially Pro Football Focus and Fantasy Pros, because they will gladly provide that service.
Instead, I want to help you turn off the noise of all those prices you see on Draft Kings. Without getting into the weeds into their casino tactics, seeing every player available (including injured or otherwise inactive players) creates a lot of confusion for the bettor. I want to take half the players out of the picture for you. And I want to separate dudes according to why they are valuable from a pricing standpoint.
Certainly, behind every SPORTSTRADAMUS SPEAKS prediction is research I’ve done with supporting data regarding matchups, usage, efficiency, previous performance, and weather. I’m not exactly pulling this out of my ass, just so you know, but I’m also hilariously not going to share any of this basis with you.
Because again: it’s somewhat arbitrary or cherry-picked and we all know it.
Hence the tagline: ANALYSIS WITHOUT EXPLANATION.