Daily fantasy sports is the intersection between the value you can find in the pricing of players and the opportunity presented to those players in terms of matchups, usage, and efficiency. Hilariously, I’m not going to give you any of that data. Like a true wizard, like an actual SPORTSTRADAMUS, I got hunches, man. I got sensibilities, and I’m ready to predict the future as well as anyone, which is to say… poorly. All selections are from the DraftKings website, specifically from the main slate of action.
Remember I’m not here to tell you who to start and sit. Instead I want to help you make sense of pricing opportunities presented on DraftKings. I aim to thin the herd of available players by about half. Not all values are created equal, which is why I’ve created six mystical categories. Click here to read more about my methodology. Click here for last week’s picks to see how I did!
Giddyup, everyone. Week 8 is upon us, and it should be a shocker with five games projected to score over 50 points. Enjoy and play at your own risk.
Worth the Expense
Consider these your studs. Given their expensive price, they will send your lineups into a volatile state. Put three of these caviar players on your roster, and you’ll be forced to include some low-priced long shots. This kind of volatility is a good thing, especially for setting yourself apart in those huge GPP tournaments. Tread carefully though; if any of these guys bust, it’s very likely your entire lineup will be toast.
QB
Russell Wilson – $7,800
Aaron Rodgers – $7,600
RB
Alvin Kamara – $8,200
Derrick Henry – $8,000
WR
Davante Adams – $8,800
DK Metcalf – $7,500
TE
George Kittle – $7,000
DEF
Chiefs – $4,500
Rams – $3,800
Perfectly Priced
Consider these your safe bets. Including many of these players will lead to a more stable lineup, with less risk and less reward. While a lineup full of these reasonably-priced guys would lead you to the promised land in cash games, they are also effective plays for GPP tournaments.
QB
Justin Herbert – $6,900
Ryan Tannehill – $6,800
Joey Burrow – $6,200
RB
Kareem Hunt – $6,900
Jonathan Taylor – $6,600
Darrell Henderson – $5,900
Melvin Gordon III – $5,600
WR
AJ Brown – $6,900
Stefon Diggs – $6,800
Tyreek Hill – $6,700
Kenny Golladay – $6,600
Tyler Boyd – $6,600
Justin Jefferson – $6,500
Keenan Allen – $6,200
Corey Davis – $5,100
TE
Travis Kelce – $6,600
Jared Cook – $4,400
Hunter Henry – $4,200
DEF
Saints – $3,400
Bills – $3,300
Colts – $3,100
Like Stealing From a Baby
DFS is all about finding value. Given the unpredictable nature of fantasy football, especially during the kooky COVID era, Draft Kings doesn’t always price things correctly. Sometimes it’s because a player is an unknown commodity, such as a rookie or a newly acquired free agent. Perhaps they want a player to prove their worth for a second week before they jack the price. Keep in mind these are absolutely not sure-bets, they are just criminally underpriced. So enjoy these incredible values because they might not be there next week.
QB
Lamar Jackson – $7,400
Derek Carr – $5,500
Jimmy Garappolo – $5,300
RB
Myles Gaskin – $5,200
Le’Veon Bell – $4,600
Zac Moss – $4,400
La’Mical Perine – $4,300
WR
Marquise Brown – $6,100
Brandon Aiyuk – $5,800
Tee Higgins – $5,600
Chase Claypool – $5,200
Nelson Agholar – $4,700
AJ Green – $4,500
Kendrick Bourne – $3,500
Darnell Mooney – $3,500
TE
Darren Waller – $5,600
Jonnu Smith – $4,100
Irv Smith, Jr. – $3,000
Cole Kmet – $2,500
DEF
Titans – $3,000
Dolphins – $2,400
Worth the Risk
Thrilling stuff. Could be a dumpster fire, could win you a GPP tournament. Consider these a notch above a dart throw. A player could be considered risky because of lingering injury or because they face a difficult matchup. Bad weather can create volatility as well.
Finally, keep in mind, risky players aren’t always cheap. Risk can sometimes be found in expensive players who are what I like to call “a walk on the chalk.” These high-ceiling, chalky players boast high ownership and pricing (often due to name recognition and/or workload), which leaves almost no margin for underperformance. For these players, their price presents too much value to pass up, but again: possible dumpster fire.
QB
Baker Mayfield – $6,100
Tua Tagovailoa – $5,600
Drew Lock – $5,300
RB
Dalvin Cook – $7,500
Josh Jacobs – $6,200
Carlos Hyde – $5,300
Jalen Richard – $4,000
WR
Michael Thomas – $7,300
Adam Thielen – $7,200
Henry Ruggs – $4,900
John Brown – $4,400
PJ Williams – $4,300
Marquez Valdes-Scantling – $3,800
TE
Mike Gesicki – $4,900
Eric Ebron – $3,900
Trey Burton – $3,500
Albert Okwuegbunam – $2,800
DEF
Ravens – $3,700
Bears – $2,800
Lions – $2,500
Next Man Up
These are values created by injury. It’s especially juicy when these injuries happen midweek, leaving dirt-cheap backups. The only drawback with these guys is that sometimes they are highly owned, which is okay for cash games but not ideal for GPP tournaments. Keep in mind some of these are also Like Stealing from a Baby.
RB
Jamaal Williams – $6,100
Giovani Bernard – $5,800
JaMycal Hasty – $5,000
Gus Edwards – $4,400
WR
Rashard Higgins – $4,200
Deonte Harris – $3,300
DaeSean Hamilton – $3,000
TE
Harrison Bryant – $3,200
So You Want to Be a Contrarian?
Let’s get weird. The larger the tournament field, the stranger your lineups might need to be in order to win. A player can be a contrarian because the public perceives him to be: overpriced, in a bad matchup, under-utilized, or too obscure. Often a great contrarian play will be a guy who stunk last week. Sometimes it’s the next, next man up. Regardless, DFS moves quickly, so we must forgive, forget and throw a dart. I wouldn’t put more than one or two of this caliber of player in any given lineup. Temper expectations, but enjoy the ride if it takes off!
QB
Drew Brees – $6,300
Kirk Cousins – $6,000
Nick Foles – $5,800
Cam Newton – $5,700
RB
Alexander Mattison – $6,000
Malcolm Brown – $4,700
Latavius Murray – $4,300
Nyheim Hines – $4,000
Adrian Peterson – $4,000
WR
Davante Parker – $5,700
Willie Snead – $3,400
Denzel Mims – $3,200
Demarcus Robinson – $3,100
Josh Reynolds – $3,100
Darrius Shepherd – $3,000
James Washington – $3,000
Zay Jones – $3,000
Trent Taylor – $3,000
TE
Drew Sample – $3,400
DEF
Patriots – $3,300
Broncos – $3,000
49ers – $2,700
