At the end of the day, every fantasy sports analyst is like a meteorologist. They certainly have a lot of data to support their theory, and often they are correct about what the weather will be. But when they’re wrong, and the hurricane is worse than expected, no one blames the meteorologist. And fantasy analysts are wrong a lot. It’s an incredibly cushy job if you think about it. They’re like modern-day Nostradamuses… Nostradami? People still flock to hear their predictions. Because when they’re right, there was all that supporting gobbledygook just sitting there, ready to substantiate the writer’s visionary prowess.
It got me thinking a very obvious thought: fantasy sports analysis is arbitrary and like, just someone’s opinion, man. There are already so many well-respected websites (for good reason!) that explain their predictions. What if I could just cut to the chase, after aggregating all that work those other guys did, because after all we can make statistics say just about whatever we want (to a limit). What if I analyzed everything for you and just… told you the conclusion of, like, my opinions, man? Better yet, what if I didn’t tell you a lot of conclusions, I just categorized the pricing on the DraftKings marketplace?
Because again, you’re probably reading this hoping I confirm a bias you already have.
In conclusion, you know I’m going to be wrong half the time anyway — just like your favorite data scientist on Twitter. With way too much time on my hands — hashtag pandemic — I’ve dove into the deep end of daily fantasy sports. And that’s when SPORTSTRADAMUS was born.
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With my articles, I’m not trying to tell you who to start or sit. Instead, I want to categorize the available players who I think present value in Daily Fantasy Sports. I’m not necessarily saying these players will be world beaters (though I do like them that week), I’m simply saying there is value to be had based on how they are priced.
There are six categories I use, and I will share my methodology under each category. If a player is not included, it’s safe to say I don’t like them for that week, based on pricing. Certainly, an expensive player will go off, but maybe not to a degree that justifies their exorbitant salary.
Again I’m not here to tell you who to start. There are dozens of websites, many of which I look at, with much higher data capabilities. Check them out, especially Pro Football Focus and Fantasy Pros, because they will gladly provide that service. Instead, I want to help you turn off the noise of all those prices you see on DraftKings. Without getting into the weeds into their casino tactics, seeing every player available (including injured or otherwise inactive players) creates a lot of confusion for the bettor. I want to take half the players out of the picture for you. And I want to separate dudes according to why they are valuable from a pricing standpoint.
Certainly, behind every SPORTSTRADAMUS SPEAKS prediction is research I’ve done with supporting data regarding matchups, usage, efficiency, previous performance and weather. I’m not exactly pulling this out of my ass, just so you know, but I’m also hilariously not going to share any of this basis with you. Because again: it’s somewhat arbitrary or cherry-picked and we all know it.
Hence the tagline: ANALYSIS WITHOUT EXPLANATION.
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Daily fantasy sports is the intersection between the value you can find in Draft King’s pricing of players, and the opportunity presented to those players in terms of matchups, usage, and efficiency. Hilariously, I’m not going to give you any of that data. Like a true wizard, like an actual SPORTSTRADAMUS, I got hunches, man. I got sensibilities, and I’m ready to predict the future as well as anyone, which is to say… poorly.
So strap in, everyone. Week 7 is upon us, and it is a doozy with 8 teams projected to score 28 points or more. DFS madness ensues. All selections are based on the DraftKings marketplace. Enjoy and play at your own risk.
Worth the Expense
Consider these your studs. Given their expensive price, they will send your lineups into a volatile state. Put three of these caviar players on your roster, and you’ll surely need to also include some low-priced long shots. This kind of volatility is a good thing, especially for setting yourself apart in those huge GPP tournaments. Tread carefully though; if any of these guys bust, it’s very likely your entire lineup will be toast.
Kyler Murray (QB) – $7,100
Aaron Rodgers (QB) – $7,000
Alvin Kamara (RB) – $7,900
Ezekiel Elliott (RB) – $7,800
Kareem Hunt (RB) – $6,800
Davante Adams (WR) – $7,900
Calvin Ridley (WR) – $7,300
Julio Jones (WR) – $7,100
Kenny Golladay (WR) – $6,700
Travis Kelce (TE) – $6,500
Bills (D/ST) – $4,700
Patriots (D/ST) – $3,900
Perfectly Priced
Consider these your safe bets. Including many of these players will lead to a more stable lineup, with less risk and less reward. While a lineup full of these reasonably-priced guys would lead you to the promised land in cash games, they are also effective plays for GPP tournaments.
Matt Ryan (QB) – $6,700
Ben Roethlisberger (QB) – $6,600
Matthew Stafford (QB) – $6,500
Justin Herbert (QB) – $6,400
Chris Carson (RB) – $6,400
Ronald Jones (RB) – $6,200
Todd Gurley (RB) – $6,000
David Johnson (RB) – $5,300
Stefon Diggs (WR) – $7,000
Kenny Golladay (WR) – $6,700
Tyler Lockett (WR) – $6,600
Chris Godwin (WR) – $6,400
Tyreek Hill (WR) – $6,400
A.J. Brown (WR) – $6,300
DJ Chark (WR) – $5,500
Deebo Samuel (WR) – $5,000
Mike Williams (WR) – $4,700
TJ Hockenson (TE) – $5,000
Noah Fant (TE) – $4,800
49ers (D/ST) – $3,300
Like Stealing From a Baby
DFS is all about finding value. Given the unpredictable nature of fantasy football, especially during the kooky COVID era, DraftKings doesn’t always price things correctly. Sometimes it’s because a player is an unknown commodity, such as a rookie or a newly acquired free agent. Perhaps they want a player to prove their worth for a second week before they jack the price. Keep in mind these are absolutely not sure-bets, they are just criminally underpriced. So enjoy these incredible values because they might not be there next week.
Teddy Bridgewater (QB) – $5,800
Justin Jackson (RB) – $4,900
Le’Veon Bell (RB) – $4,400
Keenan Allen (WR) – $6,200
Terry McLaurin (WR) – $5,800
D.J. Moore (WR) – $5,600
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR) – $5,500
Tyler Boyd (WR) – $5,400
Tee Higgins (WR) – $5,300
Brandin Cooks (WR) – $5,200
Keelan Cole (WR) – $4,700
Lavishka Shenault (WR) – $4,500
Russell Gage (WR) – $4,400
Diontae Johnson (WR) – $4,200
Dontrell Inman (WR) – $3,600
Demarcus Robinson (WR) – $3,400
Danny Amendola (WR) – $3,300
Chris Conley (WR) – $3,000
Hunter Henry (TE) – $4,500
Dalton Schultz (TE) – $3,900
Chargers (D/ST) – $3,400
Browns (D/ST) – $2,900
Worth the Risk
Thrilling stuff. Could be a dumpster fire, could win you a GPP tournament. Consider these a notch above a dart throw. Their price presents too much value to pass up, but again: possible dumpster fire.
Joe Burrow (QB) – $5,500
Kyle Allen (QB) – $5,200
Deandre Swift (RB) – $5,400
J.D. McKissic (RB) – $4,600
Christian Kirk (WR) – $4,900
Michael Gallup (WR) – $4,600
Brandon Aiyuk (WR) – $4,100
Andy Isabella (WR) – $3,900
David Moore (WR) – $3,100
Eric Ebron (TE) – $4,000
Drew Sample (TE) – $3,200
Ian Thomas (TE) – $3,000
Albert Okwuegbunam (TE) – $2,500
Cowboys (D/ST) – $3,000
Cardinals (D/ST) – $2,300
Next Man Up
These are values created by injury. It’s especially juicy when these injuries happen midweek, leaving dirt-cheap backups. The only drawback with these guys is that sometimes they are highly owned, which is okay for cash games but not ideal for GPP tournaments. Keep in mind some of these are also Like Stealing from a Baby.
Giovani Bernard (RB) – $4,500
Cole Beasley (WR) – $4,900
Gabriel Davis (WR) – $3,600
David Njoku (TE) – $3,000
So You Want to Be a Contrarian?
Let’s get weird. The larger the tournament field, the stranger your lineups might need to be in order to win. A player can be a contrarian because the public perceives him to be: overpriced, in a bad matchup, under-utilized, or too obscure. Often a great contrarian play will be a guy who stunk last week. Sometimes it’s the next, next man up. Regardless, DFS moves quickly, so we must forgive, forget, and throw a dart. I wouldn’t put more than one or two of this caliber of player in any given lineup. Temper expectations, but enjoy the ride if it takes off!
Cam Newton (QB) – $6,300
Andy Dalton (QB) – $6,000
Gardner Minshew (QB) – $5,900
Drew Lock (QB) – $5,100
Josh Jacobs (RB) – $6,300
Latavius Murray (RB) – $4,800
Leonard Fournette (RB) – $4,600
Zach Moss (RB) – $4,200
Jamaal Williams (RB) – $4,000
Brian Hill (RB) – $4,000
Samaje Perine (RB) – $4,000
Jalen Richard (RB) – $4,000
Odell Beckham (WR) – $6,100
Henry Ruggs (WR) – $4,800
Mecole Hardman (WR) – $4,500
AJ Green (WR) – $4,300
Breshad Perriman (WR) – $3,700
Jalen Guyton (WR) – $3,200
Seth Roberts (WR) – $3,000
Ian McKensie (WR) – $3,000
Jamal Agnew (WR) – $3,000
Darrius Shepherd (WR) – $3,000
Kenny Stills (WR) – $3,000
Zay Jones (WR) – $3,000
Greg Olsen (TE) – $3,600
Ryan Griffin (TE) – $2,900
Cameron Brate (TE) – $2,700
Jace Sternberger (TE) – $2,500
Jacob Hollister (TE) – $2,500
Buccaneers (D/ST) – $3,700
Steelers (D/ST) – $3,500
Bengals (D/ST) – $2,800
Jaguars (D/ST) – $2,600
Falcons (D/ST) – $2,400
